Accuracy

Don't trust us. Audit us.

Every Forum Atlas forecast is timestamped and immutable the moment it ships. When its horizon closes and the outcome is known, we record what actually happened and score the forecast with a Brier score — in public. This is that record, live from the platform.

forecasts on the record

resolved & scored to date

—

avg Brier

Most forecasts are still inside their horizon — they haven't resolved yet, so there is nothing to score. Rather than show a flattering number, we show you that honestly: the scoreboard fills in as outcomes arrive. The discipline is the point — a forecast you can't later check isn't a forecast, it's an opinion.

How scoring works

Immutable at generation. A forecast is written once, timestamped, and never edited — the goalposts can't move.
Distributions, not guesses. Each forecast is a full probability distribution over outcomes, from a 10k-sample Monte-Carlo run.
Brier-scored on resolution. When the outcome is known, we score it. 0 = perfect; 0.25 = an uninformed 50/50 on a binary; lower is better. Multi-outcome baselines differ — we publish the method, not just the number.
In public. The track record is attached to every forecast so you can judge the model before you rely on it.

By forecast type

Type	On record	Avg Brier
Regulatory Outcome	32	—
M And A Target	15	—
Contract Recompete	13	—
Launch Success	10	—
Breach Disclosure	9	—
Capacity Auction	6	—
Price Band	5	—
Other	5	—
Sanctions Designation	1	—

See the full methodology and our citation discipline.