Snyk — M&A Acquisition Probability, 12 months
What is the probability that Snyk is acquired (strategic or PE take-private) within 12 months?
Point estimate
62%
90% CI
54–69%
Horizon
365 days
Posterior distribution over acquisition probability. Bars show probability density per 5% bin. Shaded area is 90% credible interval; dashed line is median point estimate.
Probabilistic model output during the calibration period — a modeled likelihood, not a statement of fact, and not investment, legal, or financial advice. Accuracy metrics are withheld until calibration publishes.
Driver attribution
Each driver moved the point estimate by the signed delta shown. Drivers are sourced from retrieved chunks across the cyber corpus.
+18%
ARR growth decelerated 38% YoY per Snyk Q4 internal disclosure cited at OWASP DevSecCon
+14%
Two C-suite departures (CRO, CTO) in past 90 days, reported on LinkedIn + cyber trade press
Cyber Daily — Snyk CRO and CTO exits · 4mo ago
+10%
Stated exit window from Snyk's lead investor (Stripes, year 7 of fund vintage)
Stripes Group — Fund III Vintage Profile · 4mo ago
+6%
Strategic competitor (GitHub Advanced Security) shipped overlapping SCA at no marginal price
GitHub Advanced Security — SCA included in Enterprise Cloud · 4mo ago
-8%
Counter-signal: Snyk announced $50M Series H extension at flat valuation 2026-05-20
Snyk — Series H Extension Announcement · 4mo ago
Revision history
Each revision logs which drivers moved the estimate. Subscribe to revision alerts to be notified when the probability shifts beyond your tolerance.
| Date | Prior | New | Δ | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | 41% | 44% | +3% | OWASP DevSecCon Q4 ARR disclosure surfaced; mild lift on slowing growth. |
| May 9, 2026 | 44% | 58% | +14% | CRO + CTO departures cluster — material shift in operational continuity signal. |
| May 15, 2026 | 58% | 66% | +8% | GitHub Advanced Security SCA-included pricing change adds competitive pressure. |
| May 21, 2026 | 66% | 62% | -4% | Series H extension partially offsets distress signal; not exit-eliminating, but reduces 90-day window pressure. |
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Monte-Carlo forecasts with full driver attribution and revision history. See the Team tier on pricing for what's included.