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China's rare-earth export controls: the 10 November 2026 suspension expiry

Does MOFCOM & GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025 - which suspends the October 2025 rare-earth export controls through 10 November 2026 - get extended, amended or superseded by a numbered announcement before that date, or do the six suspended measures come back into force on 11 November 2026?

Catalyst · 2026-11-10 · in 22 days

THE CATALYST: Announcement No. 70's suspension of the October 2025 rare-earth controls ends. Resolution: amended/extended by a numbered MOFCOM announcement before this date, or the six measures come back into force on 11 Nov 2026

Resolution: not yet recorded — the question is open

EXTENDED if a MOFCOM/GAC announcement dated on or before 10 Nov 2026 extends, amends or supersedes No. 70; LAPSED if none exists on 11 Nov 2026 and Announcements 55-58, 61 and 62 are in force. Decided on the published document, never on a press report; the resolution is written onto the catalyst row with the document's URL.

What this timeline covers

The Chinese export-control documents of April and October 2025, the November 2025 suspension, the US side of the same exchange (the Busan deal, the BIS affiliates-rule suspension, the DFARS magnet restriction effective 1 Jan 2027) and the September 2026 reports of a truce extension - marked as reports until a document exists. Prices, company moves and analyst forecasts are not on this timeline.

10 milestones · 8 read from the document · 2 reported · last edited 2026-10-19

Ahead

  • 2026-11-09

    BIS affiliates-rule suspension ends (absent a further BIS action)

    deadlineCommerce / BIS90 FR 50857FR Doc. 2025-19846read from the documentsource

    The date in the published rule. A reported two-month extension (see 2026-09-28) has no Federal Register document behind it as of 2026-10-19.

  • 2026-11-10

    THE CATALYST: Announcement No. 70's suspension of the October 2025 rare-earth controls ends. Resolution: amended/extended by a numbered MOFCOM announcement before this date, or the six measures come back into force on 11 Nov 2026

    deadlineMOFCOM / GACread from the documentsource

    Resolves on the document, not on press: a MOFCOM/GAC announcement that extends, amends or supersedes No. 70, dated on or before 10 Nov 2026, resolves EXTENDED; none by 11 Nov 2026 resolves LAPSED (Nos. 55-58, 61, 62 in force). The lead records the resolution on this row (metadata.resolution) with the document URL.

  • 2027-01-01

    DFARS restriction on certain metal products (10 U.S.C. 4872): NdFeB and SmCo magnets mined, refined or produced at any stage in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea barred from DoD contracts

    effective dateDoD / DARS89 FR 46816FR Doc. 2024-11513DARS-2023-0018read from the documentsource

    Final rule (DFARS case 2021-D015, published 30 May 2024). "Section 854 extends the effective date of the restriction by one additional year to January 1, 2027." From that date the restriction reaches mining and early processing, not only melting.

  • 2027-01-10

    Reported end of the extended US-China truce

    deadlineMOFCOM / USTR (reported)reported, no document yetsource

    Date from press reports of the 28 Sep 2026 MOFCOM statement; no numbered document on either side as of 2026-10-19. Carried so the two dates (10 Nov 2026 on paper, 10 Jan 2027 in reports) sit on one timeline.

On the record (newest first)

  • 2026-09-28

    Reported: after the 23-25 Sep 2026 Xi-Trump meetings MOFCOM said the Busan truce is extended to 10 Jan 2027; no numbered amendment of Announcement 70 found

    decisionMOFCOM (reported)reported, no document yetsource

    Press and law-firm notes (Reuters 23 Sep 2026 via BKL; FXStreet 28 Sep 2026) report the extension; the reports say rare earths are not named in the MOFCOM statement and that the BIS affiliates suspension still legally expires 9 Nov 2026 unless BIS amends it. As of 2026-10-19 the lead found no MOFCOM/GAC announcement amending No. 70's 10 Nov 2026 date. This row is a report, not a document.

  • 2025-11-12

    BIS: one-year suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities (the "affiliates rule"), 10 Nov 2025 through 9 Nov 2026

    rulemakingCommerce / BIS90 FR 50857FR Doc. 2025-19846read from the documentsource

    "The suspension is set to end November 9, 2026, absent a future extension." The US half of the Busan exchange; its expiry is one day before Announcement 70's.

  • 2025-11-07

    MOFCOM & GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025: Announcements 55, 56, 57, 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 Nov 2025 through 10 Nov 2026

    rulemakingMOFCOM / GACread from the documentsource

    Chinese text: 自即日起至2026年11月10日 ... 暂停实施 (suspended from today through 10 November 2026). Published 8 Nov 2025. The April 2025 seven-element controls are not among the suspended measures.

  • 2025-11-01

    US-China economic and trade deal (Busan): China to suspend global implementation of the October 2025 rare-earth controls and issue general licences for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite; US suspends the BIS affiliates rule and keeps heightened reciprocal tariffs suspended until 10 Nov 2026

    decisionWhite Houseread from the documentsource

    The fact sheet gives no end date for the general licences. Every US-side suspension in it runs to 10 Nov 2026 - the same date Announcement 70 carries.

  • 2025-10-09

    MOFCOM Announcements Nos. 55-58, 61, 62 of 2025: five further rare earths (Ho, Er, Tm, Eu, Yb), rare-earth equipment and technology, battery materials, and the extraterritorial 0.1% rule

    rulemakingMOFCOM / GACread from the documentsource

    No. 61 (linked) is the extraterritorial rule: foreign-made items with >= 0.1% Chinese-origin rare-earth value, or made with Chinese rare-earth technology, need a licence; WMD/military end use prohibited. No. 62 bans export of rare-earth mining, separation, metal, magnet and recycling technology. All six are the measures Announcement 70 suspends.

  • 2025-04-04

    MOFCOM & GAC Announcement No. 18 of 2025: export controls on seven medium and heavy rare earths (Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y) and their metals, alloys, oxides, compounds and NdFeB/SmCo magnet materials

    rulemakingMOFCOM / GACread from the documentsource

    Effective on issuance (4 Apr 2025). Items 1C902-1C908. NOT suspended by Announcement 70: licences for these seven elements are required regardless of the 10 Nov 2026 date.

Hand-curated by the Forum Atlas lead from the documents linked on each row; a row marked “reported” rests on press and says so until a document exists. Corrections: contact us.